A Liberal future
I am fascinated by what the Coalition means for the future of the Liberal Democrats. Here is one possibility:
There is a significant anti-Labour majority in this country but it is split between the Tories and the Lib Dems. This allows Labour to form a government sometimes even though two thirds of the population are opposed. The question is why would anyone vote for the Lib Dems when there has been no possibility before now of their forming a government and I am guessing that these are anti-Labour voters who cannot bring themselves to vote Conservative because of what they see as the harshness of the Thatcher years.
The Coalition means that the Lib Dem supporters have effectively voted Conservative without having to admit it. I suspect that they will be pleasantly surprised and will recognise that their best course of action is to throw their lot in with the Conservatives and keep Labour permanently out of office. I suspect that the Coalition will therefore mean the end of three-party politics and the re-emergence of a two party system in which the Tories represent around two-thirds of the population and the Labour Party the remaining third.
There is a significant anti-Labour majority in this country but it is split between the Tories and the Lib Dems. This allows Labour to form a government sometimes even though two thirds of the population are opposed. The question is why would anyone vote for the Lib Dems when there has been no possibility before now of their forming a government and I am guessing that these are anti-Labour voters who cannot bring themselves to vote Conservative because of what they see as the harshness of the Thatcher years.
The Coalition means that the Lib Dem supporters have effectively voted Conservative without having to admit it. I suspect that they will be pleasantly surprised and will recognise that their best course of action is to throw their lot in with the Conservatives and keep Labour permanently out of office. I suspect that the Coalition will therefore mean the end of three-party politics and the re-emergence of a two party system in which the Tories represent around two-thirds of the population and the Labour Party the remaining third.
posted by Hugh M | 3:03 pm
3 Comments:
Interesting post. Are the Lib Dems and Conservatives close enough on most issues to act as one party? I wonder.
You question why voterw would vote for Lib Dems when there has been no chance of winning. Maybe for same reasons that voters voted for Ralph Nadar in 2000, helping to saddle us with Bush and Cheney for 8 years.
Are Lib Dems and Conservatives close enough? I would have said "no" before the Coalition but something about the nature of parties as broad coalitions themselves has become clearer to me. The Liberal Democrats range from the "Orange Book Liberals" (I have no idea!) to the Liberal Left. The Orange Book wing is socially liberal and fiscally conservative. This wing overlaps almost perfectly with the liberal wing of the Conservative Party creating a bloc which dominates the new Coalition government. It is very apparent that the liberal Conservatives and the Orange Book Liberals are more comfortable with each other than each are with the other wing of their own party. I get the distinct impression that the Prime Minister is actually relieved at being able to use the excuse, "The Liberals would not accept it" to deny his own right wing their more dubious desires. Likewise, Nick Clegg can tell his left that he would love to expropriate the Rich but that the Coalition would not survive it. In fact, we seem to have stumbled on an idea that is commonplace in American politics - checks and balances!
An incisive analysis of the coalition. And it is somewhat like our checks and balances. However, the recent constant threat of filibuster has often resulted in stalemate.
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