The Euro

The Euro has failed. Many of us in this country thought that it was doomed from the start but I, for one, had begun to doubt my own judgement over the past few years when the Single Currency seemed to go from strengh to strength. But now the thing we predicted has happened.

The reality is clear. You cannot have a currency union without a political union. The Right in England saw this clearly several years ago. The Left denied it. Now we know.

There are only two ways to escape the crisis - forward or backwards. Either the Eurozone moves forward to full politcal union ("The United States of Europe") or backward to separate currencies. Nothing else will work. But the European Union is determined to try neither of these things. Instead, it wants to bolster the weak countries until they become strong. The result will be to bankrupt the most successful country in Europe - Germany. The Germans, and to a lesser extent the French, will pump in billions and trillions to ungrateful and uncomprehending Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain and nothing will change. Eventually, they will abandon the attempt and retire, seriously wounded, to convalesce.

Thank heavens that Britain stood apart from this madness.

So which route will the continent eventualy take? Here is my prediction. It won't move forward to political union because the peoples and the vested interests in Europe won't stand for that. Even the Thirteen Colonies in America, sharing a common language and heritage, only united reluctantly (Rhode Island very reluctantly) in the face of a common threat. In the absence of such an external impetus, Union is not on the table. So the only way out is to revert to separate currencies. But not until the Germans and the French have exhausted themselves in their attempt to hold the line.

And once that has happened, the desire for greater union will recede and we will eventually move to what we should always have intended - a Free Trade Zone.